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NOVEMBER 4,  2014

GOOD NIGHT.  BE BACK IN THE MORNING.

1:25 A.M. ET:  Republican Charlie Baker has been elected governor of Massachusetts, defeating Democratic candidate Martha Coakley.  There will be Republican governors in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts.  Can we still call them blue states?  Maybe striped would be better.

12:26 A.M.  Wonderful.  In New York's 21st Congressional District, Republican Elise Stefanik has been elected to Congress at age 30.  She will be the youngest female member of Congress in American history.  Take that, Gloria Steinem!

12:25 A.M. ET:  YIKES!  Republican Larry Hogan has won the governorship of Maryland, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown.  That's Maryland!  One of the bluest states in the nation.  I guess there just weren't enough votes in Baltimore cemeteries to turn things around.

11:52 P.M. ET:  Adding insult to injury, CNN projects that Republican Bruce Rauner will be the next governor of President Obama's home state of Illinois, defeating incumbent Pat Quinn.  Illinois may now be permitted to rejoin the Union.

11:41 P.M. ET:  CNN projects Joni Ernst has been elected to the U.S. Senate from Iowa, giving Republicans their 52nd seat in the new Senate.  She will replace retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.

11:36 P.M. ET:  HERE IT IS:  CNN IS CALLING THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE FOR REPUBLIC THOM TILLIS, WHO HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT KAY HAGAN.  THIS GIVES REPUBLICANS CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE.

11:28 P.M. ET:  CNN reports that Democrat Charlie Crist has called Florida's Republican Governor Rick Scott to concede, giving Scott a second term. 

11:21 P.M. ET:  Nathan Deal has been re-elected governor of Georgia, defeating Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, who had been governor himself before wrecking the presidency.

11:20 P.M. ET:  Susana Martinez has been re-elected governor of New Mexico.   A Hispanic woman, she is being widely mentioned as a possible vice-presidential candidate in 2016.

11:10 P.M. ET:  ANOTHER MAJOR RESULT – CNN projects that Pat Roberts will hold his Kansas Senate seat, meaning there will be no Republican turnovers tonight.  Republicans have now won five Democratic Senate seats, guaranteeing that they will have 50 seats in the new Senate.  They need one more for control, and I think they'll get it.

10:58 P.M. ET:  MAJOR:  Scott Walker has been re-elected governor of Wisconsin, making him a major presidential candidate for 2016.  He won his original race, then won a recall race, and now has been re-elected.  No governor has been targeted as viciously by the Democrats as has Scott Walker.  He has survived and deserves presidential consideration, based on his outstanding governing record.   

10:41 P.M. ET:  CNN projects Republican David Perdue will defeat Michelle Nunn, holding the endangered Republican seat being vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.  That means that only one current Republican seat is in danger, and that's the Kansas seat held by Pat Roberts.  Roberts is currently ahead. 

10:26 P.M. ET:  It now appears increasingly likely that incumbent Democrat Mark Warner will squeeze out a victory in Virginia, holding on to his Senate seat.  The deciding votes will come from Fairfax County, which is heavily populated by government workers.  Virginia is one of the states where the number of government workers is so large that they can swing an election.  Another of those states is California.  I'm still hoping for a Virginia miracle, or even a miracle via recount.

10:24 P.M. ET:  Big one.  Cory Gardner has defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in Colorado, giving the GOP five pickups tonight.  They need one more to control the Senate, assuming they can hold Republican seats in Kansas and Georgia, both too close to call.  Stand by.

10:03 P.M. ET:  In the brutal Florida governorship race, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is just barely ahead of former governor Charlie Crist, who governed as a Republican, but has flipped and become a Democrat.  Scott isn't the most personable guy in the world, but he deserves re-election. 

10:02 P.M. ET:  Revisiting Virginia, where the Senate race remains incredibly tight.  Rick Gillespie is a bit less than one point ahead of incumbent Democrat Mark Warner in a race that was supposed to be a Warner coronation.  However, it does appear that Warner might well, in the end, squeeze it out.  A nailbiter and potential heartbreaker.

10:01 P.M. ET: Easy projection.  CNN projects that Republican Steve Daines has won the Montana Senate seat.  That's a GOP pickup, meaning Republicans have gained four seats thus far tonight.  Polls in Iowa have just closed.  That is a critical state.  We are looking at the good possibility that Republican Joni Ernst will give the GOP one more pickup. 

9:47 P.M. ET:  Scare avoided.  Republican Mike Rounds has won the Senate race in South Dakota.  There had been a scare for a time, with the possibility that an independent could pull out the race.  This is a turnover, meaning that Republicans have had a gain of three seats tonight.  They need a net gain of six to take control of the Senate.  However, that assumes no Republican seats are lost.  Republican seats are in possible jeopardy, however, in Kansas and Georgia.  Stand by.

9:38 P.M. ET:  Fox projects that the Louisiana Senate race will go to a runoff, meaning we will not know for weeks who wins.  The runoff will be December 6th.  This could mean that we may not know tonight who will control the Senate, depending on what happens in other states.

9:37 P.M. ET:  Fox News projects that Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will defeat Scott Brown to hold her Senate seat.  A big disappointment for us.

8:46 P.M. ET:  No new projections.  We're closely watching the remarkable Senate race in Virginia, where Ed Gillespie is doing so well against incumbent Democrat Mark Warner.  Gillespie is ahead, but the count is tightening.  And still to come in are large numbers of votes from heavily Democratic northern Virginia, where government workers make up a big chunk of the population.  Warner will probably pull it out in the end, but hope for a miracle.  At minimum, Dems get a big scare.

8:31 P.M. ET:  SECOND GOP PICKUP:  CNN projects that Tom Cotton has been elected to the U.S. Senate from Arkansas, defeating incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor.  If the projection holds, this is the second GOP Senate pickup tonight.   Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control. 

7:55 P.M. ET:  There are no new projections to report.  The big surprise of the night – the U.S. Senate race in Virginia between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and Republican challenger Ed Gillespie.  Warner was supposed to be the easy winner, but the race is too close to call.  I'd love to have this one.  Watch it carefully. 

Polls will close in a few minutes in a number of states, most critically New Hampshire.  We had early returns from New Hampshire a while ago, but they were mostly absentee ballots.  Returns in both Georgia and North Carolina are inconclusive.

7:34 P.M. ET:  FIRST GOP PICKUP:  Republican Shelley Moore Capito has just been elected to the Senate from West Virginia, replacing retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller.  This is the evening's first Republican Senate pickup.

7:33 P.M. ET:  John Kasich, a possible presidential contender, has just been re-elected as governor of Ohio.  Look for a presidential "exploratory committee" to be formed.

7:28 P.M. ET:  Polls are about to close in three more states, including critical North Carolina.  Results received in the last half hour from New Hampshire and Georgia are inconclusive.

7:02 P.M. ET:  Polls have just closed in several more states, including Georgia, which is holding a critical Senate election.  The GOP is trying to hang onto the seat vacated by the retiring Saxby Chambliss.  Stand by.

7:01 P.M. ET:  A big one.  CNN projects Mitch McConnell has defeated Alison Grimes in the Kentucky Senate race, and will remain as Republican leader of the U.S. Senate.  A projection this early is unusual, and we hope it bodes well for Republicans elsewhere.

6:24 P.M. ET:  First actual results from Kentucky show Mitch McConnell with a substantial lead over Alison Grimes, but these results are from rural areas, areas of Mitch's strength.  Not considered significant at this hour.

6 P.M. ET:  I've been monitoring news outlets all afternoon and have learned virtually nothing.  There have been no major developments, no collapses of voting systems, no candidates making last-minute mistakes.  The national news networks have been repeating the same analyses they were giving all weekend.  Polls start closing at this hour so we'll have first live results.

One note:  The networks push their own "talent," the TV term for people on-camera.  Okay, I get it.  But what I really want to see in an off-year election is an army of local reporters who know the turf, who have a feeling for their states and cities.  I recall a guy named Len O'Connor, who reported for NBC in Chicago some years ago.  Whenever there was an election, and Chicago was a factor, there was Len on national TV, very rotund, white shirt crumpled, giving the best analysis on the air.  He knew the streets, he knew the people, he knew who got a traffic light and who didn't.  He knew politics.  What we're getting today is national reporters doing the national thing, and it's boring.

MIDDAY – We're well into election day, but there's nothing dramatic to report.  The Justice Department says it has inspectors in a number of states to look for discrimination against minorities, but there's no indication that the department has any interest in voter fraud.

You might note this internet address:  http://www.ibtimes.com/when-do-polls-close-poll-closing-times-state-election-day-2014-1718365

It will give you poll closing times in the states.  Please note that parts of Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell is involved in one of the most important Senate races, close at 6 p.m. eastern time.  Might be some early indications there. 

There is surprisingly little reporting thus far on turnout.  That may be because there's been so much voting in advance of election day.  It's been difficult thus far to get a handle on who is actually voting.  That may become clearer later in the day.

ELECTION DAY – AT 7:26 A.M. ET:  Urgent Agenda will not be published in the normal manner today.  Our real work begins tonight, and we'll stay with it, blogging regularly, until key races are decided.  We'll also have comments at various times during the day.  No "Short Takes" tonight.  It's all election.  If anything extraordinary happens, such as Obama doing something well, we'll break in.  It is not expected.

To begin, non-partisan analyst Charlie Cook has an excellent analysis of the Republican situation, at National Journal: 

The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a night Republicans will have, and in turn, how to best interpret the results. At this point, at least in the Senate, this election seems to be a whole lot about the map, with more than a little political environment, including President Obama's current unpopularity, thrown in for good measure.

If Republicans take the Senate, but their gains are limited to the six states that Mitt Romney carried by at least 14 points—open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, along with the defeat of Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana (though this would not likely happen until a December 6 runoff)—that would be a good but hardly extraordinary night for the GOP. This would be a map election.

Should one of the six—namely Begich, Landrieu, or Pryor—escape defeat, that would be a bad but not fatal loss to the GOP's majority hopes. A loss in Alaska, Louisiana, or Arkansas would obviously make other outcomes in other states more important to the party. Begich, Pryor, and Landrieu have been good candidates and have all run solid campaigns. Indeed, they have each given their races all they had. Each member of this trio is analogous to strong swimmers having contended with a terrible undertow.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, in shielding these and other senators from having to cast tough votes, also prevented them from having the chance to break with President Obama on high-profile issues. As a result, each racked up what have been perceived as very high Obama support levels that were often used mercilessly in negative ads against them. Additionally, the fact that the tough challenges facing this country require tough votes meant that the Senate simply deferred dealing with (or voting on) many important issues. Longtime Washington hand Bill Sweeney reminded me of late Democratic Rep. Mike Synar's frequent line: "If you didn't want to run into burning buildings, don't be a fireman. If you don't want to take hard votes, don't be a congressman."

COMMENT:  Well said.  The whole world is watching.  We are within 20 days of the deadline for the Iran nuclear talks.  Iran will want to see whether the president's hand is strengthened or weakened by this election.   Ditto Russia.  Ditto our allies, like Israel and Japan, which are increasingly dismayed by policies coming out of Washington.

This election is a very big deal.

November 4, 2014     Permalink

NOVEMBER 3,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

DEMS PUT ON A BRAVE FACE – From CNN:  "Democrats have a message for voters during the final, frenzied day of campaigning: All is not lost.  Party leaders insist they can still hold onto the Senate -- their last bastion of power on Capitol Hill -- and are spending the remaining hours before the polls open on Tuesday trying to convince their voters not to give up.  'I don't agree with the oddsmakers,' Vice President Joe Biden said in an exclusive interview with CNN Chief Political Analyst Gloria Borger. 'I predict we're gonna ... keep the Senate.'"  And I agree that the Japanese can never find Pearl Harbor.

OMEN?  – Hillary has been pounding the pavement for the Dems this cycle, building up chits for 2016.  But the plain fact is that she doesn't gin up much excitement.  From the Boston Herald:  "Locked in an intense battle with Scott Brown to hang on to her New Hampshire congressional seat, U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen sought a last-minute boost yesterday from a Granite State presidential primary darling, but the state’s GOP said Hillary Clinton’s stump speech drew an underwhelming crowd and shows Shaheen is in lockstep with President Obama...New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairwoman Jennifer Horn told the Herald that reports Clinton’s speech campus drew 700 'must have been disappointing' because state Democrats 'booked a space that could hold at least twice as many.'"  It's been that way all along.  Hillary still leads in the polls for the Dem presidential nomination, but I wonder whether she's becoming an old story.

LAST MINUTE – Last-minute polls show tightening races.  While the Des Moines Register poll a few days ago showed Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst seven points ahead in Iowa, two new polls show a dead heat.  Republican Cory Gardner polls only a few points ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall in Colorado.  Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen are almost tied in New Hampshire.   Races in North Carolina and Georgia are similarly close.  I've never seen so many races this tight on election day.  The oddsmakers say the GOP should take over the Senate, but, frankly, the Republicans have all the advantages this year and should have put it away by now.  The closeness shows that the Republican Party itself is unpopular, and must do far more to develop a positive, popular platform for 2016.  Just being "against" won't cut it.  And if Republicans do control both houses in the next few years, they must show an ability to govern. 

November 3,  2014     Permalink

MORE GRIEF FOR THE CHIEF – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  A new survey tells the president exactly how the public feels about his leadership style.  If he's savvy, he'll take the advice seriously.  From The Hill: 

A vast majority of Americans say President Obama needs to change the way he is leading the country, according to a new poll.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Monday found that 47 percent of Democrats say the president needs to substantially alter how he approaches his job.

Two-thirds of registered voters surveyed say they think Obama should undertake either “a great deal of change” or “quite a bit of change” to his leadership style. Nearly a quarter more respondents called for “just some change,” with just 8 percent saying “not that much change” was necessary.

Those numbers compare unfavorably to the weeks before the 2010 midterm elections, when Democrats lost control of the House. While the percentage calling for “quite a bit of change” and “just some change” have remained constant, those advocating for a “great deal of change” has risen 4 percentage points.

A quarter of those surveyed who say they want Republicans to control Congress say their vote is an explicit protest of the president’s job performance — an increase of 10 percentage points from the 2010 midterms.

Moreover, voters appear to reject the president’s plan for handling the crisis that has dominated headlines headed into the elections: Ebola. More than seven in 10 Americans say that doctors should be quarantined for three weeks after returning from treating patients in the Ebola hot zone. The president has argued that doing so could discourage public health officials from traveling to the affected area, which will prolong the outbreak.

COMMENT:  What this tells me is that Americans have caught on.  They see Obama for the empty suit that he is, a man vastly unprepared for the presidency.  And they want him to improve. 

The poll also reveals a possible flaw in our electoral system.  We're stuck with Obama for another two years, when critical problems will face the nation, even though he is vastly unpopular and his administration a mess.  Should we continue a political structure that gives a president four years in office, followed by another four if re-elected?  Or should we go to an alternative form – one six-year term has been suggested.  Or, maybe there could be easier ways of easing a president out of office.  Right now the only methods are resignation or impeachment and removal.  Maybe we should adopt practices that come from parliamentary systems, wherein a president could be removed if, by secret ballot, two thirds of each house of Congress, votes him out.  What do you think?

November 3, 2014       Permalink

GRIMNESS FOR OBAMA – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  I'm sure he sometimes wonders where it all went.  He remembers the time in the 2008 campaign when he was treated like a king, even being cheered in Berlin.  What Obama never realized is that, after you're elected president you have to be president.  He hasn't a clue as to how to do that.  From Breitbart: 

At least nine other states approve of President Barack Obama at the same or lower rate as Louisiana.
An analysis of Huffington Post polling data reveals that Obama's approval rating in Louisiana is 39%. According to the Huffington Post's own figures, the following states rate Obama's approval at 39% or lower:

Alaska
Arkansas
Florida
Kansas
Kentucky
Montana
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia

Embattled Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) sparked a firestorm of controversy on Thursday when she told NBC's Chuck Todd that Southern racism was to blame for Obama's unpopularity among Louisiana voters. Her Senate opponents, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Col. Rob Maness (USAF, ret.), blasted Landrieu's controversial remarks and called for her to apologize to Louisianans.
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) also expressed outrage. "She's basically calling the people of Louisiana, she's calling all of us in the South racists..." 

Jindal is, of course, a man of color.  His family is from India, and he's been elected governor twice. 

And...

Obama is nearly as unpopular throughout the nation as he is in Louisiana and the nine states the Huffington Post noted. According to Gallup, only 41% of America approves of Obama.

COMMENT:  We've seen other presidents slip in popularity, but I don't think we've seen a president so anointed as royalty at the start of his term, and so deep in the dumps as he looks to his last two years in office.  I don't really think he can recover unless he starts realizing that all wisdom is not between his ears. 

November 3, 2014       Permalink

ONE MORE DAY – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The election, or at least the major part of it, is tomorrow.  As we've noted, millions of Americans have already voted.  As we go through the analyses this morning, the one thing that comes through is that the predictions and hunches haven't changed much over the last weekend.  Most pundits still say that the odds favor a Republican-controlled Senate.  They also say that turnout is the key, and that a strong Democratic ground game, especially among black voters, can disrupt the predictions.

In one critical state, there are developments, at least according to Byron York of the Washington Examiner: 

For a brief time in mid-October, some Democrats believed Michelle Nunn, the party's Senate candidate in Georgia, could be the firewall that prevents a Republican takeover of the Senate. If Nunn could win the seat opened by retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, then Republicans would need to pick up seven, not six, seats to take control.

In half-a-dozen polls taken over a two-week period in the middle of October, Nunn led Republican opponent David Perdue in five, while the candidates tied in one.  Democratic optimism surged. "National Democrats have just decided to pour $1 million into this race in Georgia, a sign of how important a victory here would be to their effort to beat the odds and hold on to control of the Senate," the Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 17. More pro-Nunn money came after that, with a barrage of ads focusing mostly on accusations the businessman Perdue outsourced thousands of Georgia jobs.

Now, things have changed. Perdue has recovered from the attacks — he indisputably helped create thousands of jobs in his career — and in the last six polls, taken since Oct. 16, Perdue has led in five, while one was a tie. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Perdue is up by 2.2 percentage points. In the newest poll, a NBC News-Marist survey released Sunday, Perdue leads by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Perdue's position puts him in striking distance of the 50 percent total required for him to win outright, avoid a January runoff and dash a lot of Democratic hopes.

COMMENT:  We hope.  The Georgia seat is currently held by the retiring Republican senator, Saxby Chambliss.  Republicans must not lose seats if they are going to take the Senate.  It looks pretty good in Georgia, but we can't quite put this one away.

Oh, also in Georgia.  It appears that Republican Governor Nathan Deal will hold off a challenge tomorrow from Jason Carter, the grandson of Jimmy Carter.  I would never attribute the sins of granddad to the grandson, but I'd sleep better knowing that Jimmy had no influence over the governorship of Georgia, a position he once held.

November 3,  2014     Permalink